HD-DVD vs Blu-Ray

[tsd2005]

Some interesting developments have come about.

First a rundown of Round 1: HD-DVD won the Round decidedly. Their PQ blew away Blu-Ray. They're also $500 less expensive! Currently sales are 9 HD-DVD machines to 1 Blu-Ray. Software is 30 to 1. Things are so bad that Sony owned media services tried to spin a statement from Toshiba President about making a unified standard. Americans look at it (thanks to the media) as a sign of losing. In Japan its the ultimate slap in the face to be winning and offering to help out your opponent. Remember: total HD-DVD player sales (Toshiba and RCA units) are at over 35,000 total. Blu-ray is at 3,800. Selling currently about 10,000 units a month (and rising) vs 3,800 (and falling). The total numbers game in the hardware side will get better for Blu-Ray. However when Sanyo's player hits the market, all bets are off for that continuing.

So I've been told repeatedly about the upcoming PS3 blowing away HD-DVD in the not-so-distant future. Of course I get these remarks from Sony reps. I mention that currently the new Pioneer and Sony players can't fix the problems with the recordings that are on sale. The problem isn't the Samsung unit, it's the discs themselves. Mpeg2 (Blu-Ray) vs VC-1 (HD-DVD), and HD-DVD blows away Blu-Ray in Picture Quality (PQ).

Gamers aren't dumb. They are extremely picky buyers. Sony is full of themselves and the fact that they have currently complete ownership of the Console Market. I remember when Nintendo had the market cornered. They had Sega beat up, and people made fun of Sega. Then Sega had the Genesis. Sega leapt to number 1. Then Sony came out with the Playstation and took over. They did it with better technology and better software. The PS2 was amazing as well. MicroSoft entered the battle with the X-Box a better console in technology hands down. However the software camp was controlled by Sony. That changed over the years and the better games have slowly been coming out on the X-Box.

Currently the X-Box 360 is like HD-DVD. They got in the market first, and this time with a year head start. However everyone started talking how the PS3 was going to be better in technology than the 360. Well in reality the numbers that Sony announced turned out to be bogus. Gamers are talking about it everywhere. The Sony PS3 will not be better technology wise than the 360. The only edge lies in the Blu-Ray drive and the Controller technology. Microsoft has similar controllers about to be released. So that edge is gone.

Microsoft also announced their upcoming HD-DVD versions of the 360. In addition HD-DVD drives can be added to the 360. Cost of the HD-DVD 360 is $449 or $50 less than the entry level PS3 which technically has a Blu-Ray drive, but not the ability to play Blu-Ray movies (you have to buy an accessory pack for that: $129). The $599 Blu-Ray will have the ability to play Blu-Ray movies. $150 separates the two. Plus MicroSoft will be dropping the price of their other 360s $50 a piece. So a $249 version and $349 version will go against the lesser PS3 and its high prices.

Microsoft will have the edge in technology and for the first time: software. Not just the better movie software, but better game software.

Add in the Blu-Ray drive issues.

The reason the Sony player has been delayed is that the low output of drives made Sony feel they wouldn't be able to meet demand for the PS3. Those drives have gone to PS3 manufacturing. Still Sony isn't sure if they can have a million units available before the end of the year.

Microsoft has already sold over 3.5M units. They are currently projected to finally win the console race this month of July with about 400,000 units sold. Even if they only sell 300,000 units a month they will have 5M units already sold when the PS3 goes on sale. Chances are high that the numbers will be closer to 7M. Sony is expecting to sell 6M PS3s by the end of the first quarter of 2007. At that time MicroSoft expects to have 10M 360s out, and about 1M with HD-DVD drives or add on drives.

Yet industry analysts are saying that the chances that the majority of Sony's PS3 buyers will be buying Blu-Ray movies at $30 a pop is extremely low. They estimate only about 5% will be buying up to 3 movies in a year with only 2% actually using it for primarily movie watching (over 3 movies). That still leaves 120,000 regular Blu-Ray devices automatically sold. That is IF Sony meets their expectations for PS3.

The PS3 is $499 or $599. For $599 you get Blu-Ray ability. How many people are really going to spend the extra money on the HD space, HDMI output, and Blu-Ray playability? I'm guessing not as many as Sony thinks.

So it looks like Blu-Ray will just run all over HD-DVD...

However estimates on sales are still that HD-DVD will have around 250,000 sold units by the end of the year. These estimates were made before Sanyo announced their upcoming $349 HD-DVD player.

That is right. HD-DVD is coming to Wal-Mart. At $349 a pop. In November just in time for the Christmas Shopping season.

Toshiba will likely drop their price around November to $399 or $449. RCA will follow suit. Samsung may have their Combo player out by then too at $1,499.

Right now HD-DVD has the edge in picture quality. That won't change with Pioneer and Sony units.

My Pioneer rep said that currently they're banging their heads against the wall about signing an exclusivity deal on Blu-Ray. The only way they can release a HD-DVD player is by releasing a combo player. That is until 2008.

Talking to some guys at CNet they've told me that unless Blu-Ray PQ jumps significantly, that their Christmas Buyers guide will be telling buyers to buy an HD-DVD player over DVD and Blu-Ray! Consumer Reports will likely follow suit.

So Round 2 which is the holiday season will likely end with HD-DVD owning the actual player market, computer market (HD-DVD will be in more computer machines this christmas despite Dell), but not in the Console market. Both camps will call it a win. It will really be a tie.

The actual battle will be fought in Software. If HD-DVD continues to outsell Blu-Ray in Software at the current rate thru Christmas... the battle will have been won by Toshiba. People I know at Disney have told me that current Software Sales numbers have them questioning their decision to side with Blu Ray. That if they continue throught the Holiday Season to have at worst a 3 to 1 Sales edge, then chances are high that in 2007, Disney will be releasing HD-DVDs and Blu-Ray. When Disney sees the numbers are more profitable with HD-DVD (cheaper replication) they may just ditch Blu-Ray.

Yet right now a 30 to 1 edge in Software Sales is massive. Better Product, Better Software, Better Pricing.

I fully believe that come Christmas time when buyers are looking at Christmas presents a High Definition Disc technology costing $500 less than the other will make their decision for them. Even with lying sales people, twice the cost is hard to swallow. Add that the common consumer knows what a DVD is and they know that HD means High Definition. So they know what HD-DVD means. What they don't know is what the hell Blu-Ray means or is.

Case in point at Best Buy on Tuesday buying the new HD-DVD releases I saw a person looking at Blu-Ray discs and his buddy saying "Its probably something stupid and overpriced like those stupid PSP movies." Then they walked the 5 feet to the HD-DVD section... "Wow cool, High Definition DVDs! Man I bet those players cost thousands!" Followed by noticing the Toshiba HD-DVD sales plaque placed right with the movies... "Oh my god! The player only costs $500!!! I have that on my credit card, lets get it!"

I witnessed that exchange. They bought like 8 movies as well. I talked to the kids (college aged) and they said they had a Sanyo HDTV at home they bought for around $500 from Wal-Mart.

Watching the common consumer make that purchasing decision let me know just how strong the name HD-DVD is, and how DUMB Blu-Ray is for a name.

All of this has me leaning towards telling my customers that HD-DVD is the answer. I'll definately know after Christmas. Right now if asked, my advice is "wait, but if you don't want to, and you want the best out of your system, HD-DVD today is the only answer."

 

[attyonline]

Great post! I do not have your inside knowledge, but the software for blu ray has been a joke. The latest review from SGHT really criticizes the poor software for blu ray which is inexplicable when people can only judge the format by how the software looks. Its highly unusual for SGHT to give a poor review to a big ad provider like Sony/Samsung, which indicates how bad this stuff is right now. I would get a Toshiba now, but the damn thing is slower than molasses in January! There also appears to be some controversey whether the player or software is at fault for the movie going back to the start when you stop it, rather than starting from the point of stoppage. This is a deal killer too for me. But these issues are minor IMO and will be addressed in the second generation player which I likely will buy if movie choice continues to expand.

 

[Eye Candy]

There is an editorial over on projectorcentral (http://www.projectorcentral.com/blu-ray_2.htm) that pretty much echoes your thoughts. Looks grim for Sony and good for consumers.

 

[SteveInNC]

I think they're both toast at the current pricing levels. SDVDs have started selling in volume because the stores have finally found the right pricing levels: $20 for a current release, $12-17 for older, more or less contemporary stuff, and <$10 for back catalog, uncommercial, or limited interest stuff. I will almost never buy a DVD at $20+ because they've trained me to expect pricing to drop to $10-15 within a few months. I've also been burned by the "regular release->extended release->director's release->Superbit release (and now ->HD release)" cycle that they force on us. DVDs are a discretionary, impulse buy for me. I'll wait six months to see if a "better" version comes out at the same or cheaper pricing. On the other hand, my impulse price is right at $10. If I see a movie I have liked, or suspect I might like based on previous reviews, I'm not too concerned about getting a dud at $10. At the Walmart $5 box-o-titles, I'll pick up even marginal stuff, just because it might be entertaining. Compared to a $3 rental, the extra $2 to own it is worth it. At worst, I'll give it away to someone else.

Both vendors think that they now have something new that they can use to leverage the above pricing model, HD, thus the discs are closer to $30. I can think of maybe ten movies total throughout time that I might pay $30 for. A good percentage of them aren't out there in any format, so won't likely be on HD anytime soon. None of them are on this list:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=692850

Note, I can easily afford them, but the value/cost proposition just isn't there for me for most movies. Realistically, how many times do you re-watch a movie .v re-play a CD?

I was around (and bought) CDs when the format first came out. I had a $500 single-disc Yamaha CD-X1 player, roughly equivalent in inflated dollars to the current HD video offerings. Exactly the same issues described above existed then: crappy mastering by some labels that made the software underperform, crappy choices of what titles/artists to release in the new format (Blazing Saddles? I loved the movie, but why in HD?), and limited supply of titles, with predatory pricing blamed on limited pressing facilities.

Until the studios and/or manufacturers drop HD pricing to current DVD levels, I won't be interested. I note that DVDA and SACD now sell in Best Buy for the same prices as Redbook CDs, thus I'm more inclined to buy them than I was at $25 each. I also didn't buy a player until I could get one at a reasonable price that supported both formats. I also own a Beta VCR... A dual-format HD unit will make a big difference in the general adoption of HD.

A comment was made about pushing HD through the Walmart channel. That demographic is very price-sensitive - that's why they shop at Walmart. Most will not have a HDTV either, so if anything, that will only serve to cannibalize the higher-end retailers (Best Buy et al) and drive prices down; it won't necessarily greatly increase volume. The audio/videophile market is largely immune to any of the above.

re: video games, there will always be the fan base that buys whomever's new console. What really drives that market is the "killer app" video game. I haven't seen such a title offered or proposed for either platform yet. Specsmanship drove the initial fever for both platforms. Both failed to deliver in time or to live up to the hype they generated. I note that much of the interest and buzz in the market right now is around the Nintendo Wii (everyone hates the name, but everyone is also talking about it...). It may sneak up from behind and take over, much the way that the iPod did in the MP3 market.

Note: it's unlikely that anyone in this forum counts as a typical consumer - we own speakers that cost more than many people's cars...

 

[tsd2005]

Great post! I do not have your inside knowledge, but the software for blu ray has been a joke. The latest review from SGHT really criticizes the poor software for blu ray which is inexplicable when people can only judge the format by how the software looks. Its highly unusual for SGHT to give a poor review to a big ad provider like Sony/Samsung, which indicates how bad this stuff is right now. I would get a Toshiba now, but the damn thing is slower than molasses in January! There also appears to be some controversey whether the player or software is at fault for the movie going back to the start when you stop it, rather than starting from the point of stoppage. This is a deal killer too for me. But these issues are minor IMO and will be addressed in the second generation player which I likely will buy if movie choice continues to expand.

The 1.4 Firmware upgrade on the Toshiba makes it as fast as the Samsung, or slightly faster. Both have amazingly long times to start up, then load a disc.

I've been told the RCA player does not have the stoppage problem, but I've yet to verify that for myself.

NAD has already dropped their Blu-Ray plans, and may well have an HD-DVD player out early next year.

 

[tsd2005]

I think they're both toast at the current pricing levels. SDVDs have started selling in volume because the stores have finally found the right pricing levels: $20 for a current release, $12-17 for older, more or less contemporary stuff, and <$10 for back catalog, uncommercial, or limited interest stuff. I will almost never buy a DVD at $20+ because they've trained me to expect pricing to drop to $10-15 within a few months. I've also been burned by the "regular release->extended release->director's release->Superbit release (and now ->HD release)" cycle that they force on us. DVDs are a discretionary, impulse buy for me. I'll wait six months to see if a "better" version comes out at the same or cheaper pricing. On the other hand, my impulse price is right at $10. If I see a movie I have liked, or suspect I might like based on previous reviews, I'm not too concerned about getting a dud at $10. At the Walmart $5 box-o-titles, I'll pick up even marginal stuff, just because it might be entertaining. Compared to a $3 rental, the extra $2 to own it is worth it. At worst, I'll give it away to someone else.

Both vendors think that they now have something new that they can use to leverage the above pricing model, HD, thus the discs are closer to $30. I can think of maybe ten movies total throughout time that I might pay $30 for. A good percentage of them aren't out there in any format, so won't likely be on HD anytime soon. None of them are on this list:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=692850

Note, I can easily afford them, but the value/cost proposition just isn't there for me for most movies. Realistically, how many times do you re-watch a movie .v re-play a CD?

I was around (and bought) CDs when the format first came out. I had a $500 single-disc Yamaha CD-X1 player, roughly equivalent in inflated dollars to the current HD video offerings. Exactly the same issues described above existed then: crappy mastering by some labels that made the software underperform, crappy choices of what titles/artists to release in the new format (Blazing Saddles? I loved the movie, but why in HD?), and limited supply of titles, with predatory pricing blamed on limited pressing facilities.

Until the studios and/or manufacturers drop HD pricing to current DVD levels, I won't be interested. I note that DVDA and SACD now sell in Best Buy for the same prices as Redbook CDs, thus I'm more inclined to buy them than I was at $25 each. I also didn't buy a player until I could get one at a reasonable price that supported both formats. I also own a Beta VCR... A dual-format HD unit will make a big difference in the general adoption of HD.

A comment was made about pushing HD through the Walmart channel. That demographic is very price-sensitive - that's why they shop at Walmart. Most will not have a HDTV either, so if anything, that will only serve to cannibalize the higher-end retailers (Best Buy et al) and drive prices down; it won't necessarily greatly increase volume. The audio/videophile market is largely immune to any of the above.

re: video games, there will always be the fan base that buys whomever's new console. What really drives that market is the "killer app" video game. I haven't seen such a title offered or proposed for either platform yet. Specsmanship drove the initial fever for both platforms. Both failed to deliver in time or to live up to the hype they generated. I note that much of the interest and buzz in the market right now is around the Nintendo Wii (everyone hates the name, but everyone is also talking about it...). It may sneak up from behind and take over, much the way that the iPod did in the MP3 market.

Note: it's unlikely that anyone in this forum counts as a typical consumer - we own speakers that cost more than many people's cars...

Well at $349 at Wal-Mart that isn't a bad price. In fact Wal-Mart will likely have 3 or 4 HDTVs under $400 during the Christmas shopping season. So for $750 total you could have HD-DVD displayed in all its glory. Compare that to the fact that you can't even get a Blu-Ray player for that cost.

Wal-Mart currently sells a massive amount of HDTVs every month. So the market is there.

I expect HD-DVD software prices to drop again in November. We already have an upcoming price drop in August from Universal. This will bring all non-hybrid HD-DVDs under $30 MSRP. Universal HD-DVDs currently street for $23.95. Meanwhile the competition already has those price points (Studio competition, not BD). So they street for $19.95. So all HD-DVDs will be selling for $19.95.

However I expect Warner to be announcing their first price drops sometime soon, to go into effect in November. Expect to see them make an announcement that they will now have $22.95 MSRP on select back catalogs, and $26.95 for new catalog titles. Which will put their street at $14.95 and $17.95 respectively.

So you will have your cheaper back catalogs you can purchase for the Holiday season at $15. Of the 400 titles you can choose from around Christmas time I expect about 200 of them may have price points around $15. Sure it isn't $10... but it sure looks a lot better than DVD.

Compare it to Blu-Ray where if they make the disc properly (Mpeg4 or VC-1) they have a higher MSRP. Underworld currently streets for around $28. That is absurd. You have to pay to get the one decent looking BD disc.

 

[Tiberium]

What's the point? Neither player has HDMI 1.3 or can run a full 1080p with 5.1+ lossless audio so why not wait until all this comes out?

 

[socialxray]

I find it funny how the HD-DVD spin is getting trumped up and Blu-Ray is considered dead even though it has launched less than a month ago. Some of the information is questionable and some of it is outright wrong. Most of it is just opinion.

All PS3s will be able to play blu-ray movies out of the box. That was an official Sony statement. Sony is counting on this to put Blu-Ray in front. At Sony's price points my opinion is that Sony has a good chance of achieving this but will certainly lose the Console war to Microsoft and Nintendo. Nobody can win a console war with a $600 box. Remember 3DO?

Even so, with all of the technology that is packed in a PS3 it will be a bargain with or without HDMI. Why? Because the average consumer does not know or care about HDMI. Will they be able to tell if they are listening to Dolby TrueHD or Dolby Digital? Will they even care? I think not.

Toshiba is losing $200 on every HD-DVD player it sells. Will it be able to further reduce prices to hit this $349 price point for Wal-Mart? Maybe. Of course Toshiba is betting on HD-DVD because it owns the format so to speak. Why would RCA sell anything for a loss for a format that it does not own? This is why Samsung and Pioneer are selling their players for $1000+ instead of $500.

Currently HD-DVD titles do have a overall better picture quality. It does vary movie to movie but from what I have read Blu-Ray's first wave of titles could have been better. As has been stated this is because of the content of the discs and not a failure of the technology. HD-DVD and Blu-Ray support the same video codecs (MPEG2, MPEG4, VC-1) and this "edge" will almost certainly be erased in the next wave of titles.

Most importantly, both formats could have used another year in development. This is obvious from the performance of the players to the way the software behaves. Yes raging competition has brought 2 half-baked formats to market.

Lastly, Even if CNET and others recommend HD-DVD for Christmas, HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are not even in the mindset of the average consumer yet. The demand for high def movies is not that great right now relative to DVD. Remember how everybody thought we would be listening to either DVD-As or SACDs instead of CDs? Well it turns out that there is not a great demand for music that sounds about 15% better at a 40% cost increase. It think that will hold true for high def movies for at least another year. Anyways, it will be a year before each format is performing at its true potential. No my friends, the format war is not over. It has just begun.

 

[tsd2005]

I find it funny how the HD-DVD spin is getting trumped up and Blu-Ray is considered dead even though it has launched less than a month ago. Some of the information is questionable and some of it is outright wrong. Most of it is just opinion.

All PS3s will be able to play blu-ray movies out of the box. That was an official Sony statement. Sony is counting on this to put Blu-Ray in front. At Sony's price points my opinion is that Sony has a good chance of achieving this but will certainly lose the Console war to Microsoft and Nintendo. Nobody can win a console war with a $600 box. Remember 3DO?

Even so, with all of the technology that is packed in a PS3 it will be a bargain with or without HDMI. Why? Because the average consumer does not know or care about HDMI. Will they be able to tell if they are listening to Dolby TrueHD or Dolby Digital? Will they even care? I think not.

Toshiba is losing $200 on every HD-DVD player it sells. Will it be able to further reduce prices to hit this $349 price point for Wal-Mart? Maybe. Of course Toshiba is betting on HD-DVD because it owns the format so to speak. Why would RCA sell anything for a loss for a format that it does not own? This is why Samsung and Pioneer are selling their players for $1000+ instead of $500.

Currently HD-DVD titles do have a overall better picture quality. It does vary movie to movie but from what I have read Blu-Ray's first wave of titles could have been better. As has been stated this is because of the content of the discs and not a failure of the technology. HD-DVD and Blu-Ray support the same video codecs (MPEG2, MPEG4, VC-1) and this "edge" will almost certainly be erased in the next wave of titles.

Most importantly, both formats could have used another year in development. This is obvious from the performance of the players to the way the software behaves. Yes raging competition has brought 2 half-baked formats to market.

Lastly, Even if CNET and others recommend HD-DVD for Christmas, HD-DVD and Blu-Ray are not even in the mindset of the average consumer yet. The demand for high def movies is not that great right now relative to DVD. Remember how everybody thought we would be listening to either DVD-As or SACDs instead of CDs? Well it turns out that there is not a great demand for music that sounds about 15% better at a 40% cost increase. It think that will hold true for high def movies for at least another year. Anyways, it will be a year before each format is performing at its true potential. No my friends, the format war is not over. It has just begun.

Your post is filled with so much misinformation it is funny. You've obviously bought the Blu-Ray media machine's crap.

I talked to a VP at Toshiba, they make about $120 off each HD-DVD player sold (the $500 version). He said the BS story about them costing $700 so they lose $200 was so unprofessional and stupid that it is funny. I agree I know that if it cost $700 it wouldn't be a $200 loss but a massive $350+ loss.

You already answered whether it was misinformation or not by stating why would RCA sell a player at a loss? The price of the RCA is $499. It is on sale now. Go buy one from Circuit City. You will see that what you believe is misinformation.

Toshiba is not losing money. They have better production going on right now on HD-DVD drives. They produce more, they cost less.

Sanyo makes some of the parts, and they will have a $349 version out for the Holidays.

I also had a long talk with my Sony Rep about the PS3. The $499 version will not play BD out of the box. You have to buy the addon (remote/HDMI output). The $599 version plays it out of the box.

In addition only 7 BD titles of the first 200+ planned will be encoded by VC-1 or MPEG-4. They will all have price tags that will make them cost on average $10 more than HD-DVD.

So 2nd wave, etc. doesn't matter BD is lower quality by PLAN. Higher Quality BD costs more money. HD-DVD is all VC-1 and high quality at a lower price.

The PS3 won't be as fast or good at graphics as the 360. It has major problems. So I'm not sure gamers are going to spend more for less. Less technology, less software.

 

[Tiberium]

tsd2005 you are wrong on almost every point! Why are you taking the side of HD dvd over blue ray? Why are you sticking up for the toshiba HD dvd player (if you could call it that) which is one of the worst players in history? None of these high def formats have begun and you are already picking the winner. Like I said before the whole point of high def was 1080p which is not offered yet in any HD dvd or blue ray player and lossless audio which is also not offered in any player. People like you who jump the bandwagon just for the gimmicks are the reason better technology fails and on the spec sheet blue ray is the far superior format.

 

[socialxray]

Whoa tsd, calm down fanboy. Yes there is a $500 RCA player. That is where fact ends and speculation begins. If anyone has bought into anybody's media machine it is you.

In my opinion neither format is acceptable for commercial consumption yet. Blu-Ray looks better on paper but it has to deliver in the marketplace. So far it hasn't. But it just launched. HD-DVD is the more conservative technology and it may be a better implementation. A 2 minute lag time from startup to watching a movie does not appeal to me. But it just launched. All of these issues will be worked out.

The winner is going to be decided by price and convenience. So far HD-DVD has the edge in price but I am not so sure about convenience. Sony is putting all of its eggs in the PS3 basket. I have some serious reservations about this strategy.

If I sounded like I bought the Blu-Ray media machine that is not the case at all. Sorry but you were spreading the FUD so thick that I just couldn't take it anymore. I am not going to pick a side until the dust has settled. Yeah it will take about 2 years but I'll spend my money on stereo equipment until then.

 

[tsd2005]

tsd2005 you are wrong on almost every point! Why are you taking the side of HD dvd over blue ray? Why are you sticking up for the toshiba HD dvd player (if you could call it that) which is one of the worst players in history? None of these high def formats have begun and you are already picking the winner. Like I said before the whole point of high def was 1080p which is not offered yet in any HD dvd or blue ray player and lossless audio which is also not offered in any player. People like you who jump the bandwagon just for the gimmicks are the reason better technology fails and on the spec sheet blue ray is the far superior format.

I'm in fact not wrong on any of the points. Everything I've posted is fact. I talk to Toshiba reps, Sony reps, and yes MicroSoft reps once a week.

How is the Toshiba one of the worst players in history? It works more than the Samsung. It has a less than 1% return rate. Compare that to the close to 10% return rate of the Samsung.

Both machines take over 25 seconds to just turn on. Each takes an additional 25 seconds just to read a disc. The Toshiba was much slower by about 45 seconds total out of the box. For those that have upgraded the firmware to 1.4, the Toshiba currently lags behind the Samsung by less than 10 seconds (total).

The Samsung does send out a 1080p image. Of course its not reading the 1080p disc. It takes the 1080i info, upconverts it to 1080p then sends it out. Which is bass ackwards.

I don't think the lossless audio is really part of the equation. Why? Because both parties use the same codecs. So they will be equal when available.

HD-DVD will have over 400 titles out by the end of the year. They will be cheaper on average than BD. They will have a FAR BETTER picture quality than 95% of the BD titles. The 5% BD titles that use VC-1 or MPEG-4 are slated to cost MORE. BD will have 200 titles out by the end of the year. 95% of them will barely be better than DVD vs 95% of the HD-DVDs will be better than DVD.

To me currently, I already see a winner. I'm going with the company that has studios using VC-1 or MPEG-4 vs. the company that has studios using MPEG-2.

 

[Tiberium]

tsd2005 you are doing nothing but assuming and you know what they say about assumptions. socialxray was right you are nothing more then a fanboy! If you want to use main stream electronics go ahead but for the rest of us we are waiting to see who wins this battle and then buy into the high end part of the players to receive the best of the best.

 

[Tiberium]

I don't think the lossless audio is really part of the equation. Why? Because both parties use the same codecs. So they will be equal when available.

You are not reading my posts. The whole point of this high def format was 1080p and 5.1+ lossless audio and since neither format or player has this out yet there is no point in picking sides!

 

[Robin]

Bule-Ray Rules...

tsd2005 you are wrong on almost every point! Why are you taking the side of HD dvd over blue ray? Why are you sticking up for the toshiba HD dvd player (if you could call it that) which is one of the worst players in history? None of these high def formats have begun and you are already picking the winner. Like I said before the whole point of high def was 1080p which is not offered yet in any HD dvd or blue ray player and lossless audio which is also not offered in any player. People like you who jump the bandwagon just for the gimmicks are the reason better technology fails and on the spec sheet blue ray is the far superior format.

Tiberium,

I agree.
Blue-Ray is by far the superior HD format. Wait until Pioneer and other high-end electronic companies come out with high-end Blue-Ray versions with lossless audio etc., Blue-Ray players...
From everything I've read - reviews, forum reviews and manufacturers product information Blue-ray truly is the superior format...

 

[Reverb2009]

Your post is filled with so much misinformation it is funny. You've obviously bought the Blu-Ray media machine's crap.

I talked to a VP at Toshiba, they make about $120 off each HD-DVD player sold (the $500 version). He said the BS story about them costing $700 so they lose $200 was so unprofessional and stupid that it is funny. I agree I know that if it cost $700 it wouldn't be a $200 loss but a massive $350+ loss.

You already answered whether it was misinformation or not by stating why would RCA sell a player at a loss? The price of the RCA is $499. It is on sale now. Go buy one from Circuit City. You will see that what you believe is misinformation.

Toshiba is not losing money. They have better production going on right now on HD-DVD drives. They produce more, they cost less.

Sanyo makes some of the parts, and they will have a $349 version out for the Holidays.

I also had a long talk with my Sony Rep about the PS3. The $499 version will not play BD out of the box. You have to buy the addon (remote/HDMI output). The $599 version plays it out of the box.

In addition only 7 BD titles of the first 200+ planned will be encoded by VC-1 or MPEG-4. They will all have price tags that will make them cost on average $10 more than HD-DVD.

So 2nd wave, etc. doesn't matter BD is lower quality by PLAN. Higher Quality BD costs more money. HD-DVD is all VC-1 and high quality at a lower price.

The PS3 won't be as fast or good at graphics as the 360. It has major problems. So I'm not sure gamers are going to spend more for less. Less technology, less software.

TSD,

I don’t know ware your getting your information but its wrong, again.

There is no HDMI add on for the $499.95 PS3, you can add WiFi to it, a bigger HD, everything the $599.95 PS3 comes with BUT! HDMI. If HDMI is important to you, you will have to pay the $599.95 price tag to get it. And YES! The $499.95 WILL! Play Blu-Ray movies out of the box, MS fanboys have been throwing this rumor around but Sony has been very quick to shoot it down.

MS’s biggest mistake with the Xbox was you had to by the $30.00 remote to play back DVD movies, Sony is not making this same mistake.

Also please post your link to this XBox 360 price drop, because the winter price drop was only a rumor that MS officially shot down, there is NO planned price drop for the X360. The rumor right now that MS has yet to confirm or deny is the platinum X360 is not getting a price drop because the HD-DVD external add on will be packed in for the same price of $399.95.

Also there is a spy photo floating around of a X360 motherboard with an HDMI port on the back. People are speculating this could be a new version of the Xbox 360 with HDMI and an internal HD DVD drive, but so far nothing has been confirmed or denied, other then HD DVD disks will never be used for games only movies. Thus giving PS3 an advantage that it will have room for those 1080 textures, Xbox 360 developers have been complaining from day one about a typical DVD not having enough room for 720 textures let alone 1080 textures. PS3 will have an advantage that it’s Blu-Ray disk have the room for Hi-Def full motion video and full 1080P textures.

Personally I don’t give a shit about this HD DVD vs Blu-Ray war, I only care if one format wins. I have an HD-A1 and love it very much; if Blu-Ray shapes up (and it will) I will more then likely pick up one of those players too.

 

[tsd2005]

Whoa tsd, calm down fanboy. Yes there is a $500 RCA player. That is where fact ends and speculation begins. If anyone has bought into anybody's media machine it is you.

In my opinion neither format is acceptable for commercial consumption yet. Blu-Ray looks better on paper but it has to deliver in the marketplace. So far it hasn't. But it just launched. HD-DVD is the more conservative technology and it may be a better implementation. A 2 minute lag time from startup to watching a movie does not appeal to me. But it just launched. All of these issues will be worked out.

The winner is going to be decided by price and convenience. So far HD-DVD has the edge in price but I am not so sure about convenience. Sony is putting all of its eggs in the PS3 basket. I have some serious reservations about this strategy.

If I sounded like I bought the Blu-Ray media machine that is not the case at all. Sorry but you were spreading the FUD so thick that I just couldn't take it anymore. I am not going to pick a side until the dust has settled. Yeah it will take about 2 years but I'll spend my money on stereo equipment until then.

Blu-Ray doesn't look better on paper when it comes to software. Consider:

Just over 200 titles out by years end. Only 8 will not be using MPEG-2. These 8 titles have a $40 MSRP. So HD-DVD has price and QUALITY.

I'm in this industry up to my neck. It's how I make a living. I'm not buying any media. Because Toshiba doesn't own any media outlets. Sony on the otherhand does. So when IGN (Sony owned and operated) has an article go up about Toshiba bowing out of the format wars I scratch my head.

The article is full of lies. I don't think the people at Toshiba are lying to me about making money on the machine. They even told me that the original article and its assumptions of part costs were way off base. Toshiba just won't make a player and lose money. RCA definately has no reason to release a product that loses them money. Sanyo has no reason to release product and lose money. This isn't speculation on my part. Toshiba's director of US operations has told me they aren't losing money. I therefor think it is a fact. They think this war won't be decided for years. So they aren't pushing a "it's over," message on me.

Yet I'm supposed to believe that they are losing money on their players? Ok. Sanyo and RCA can go make BD players. They have no reason to stick to the HD-DVD camp. Sure Sanyo makes some parts that the HD-DVD devices use, but that isn't the investment that Toshiba has.

Convenience: The Toshiba players being shipped now are 1.4 firmware. They have near equal load times with the Samsung now. The RCA unit is according to RCA reps faster than the other two. I've yet to read any official numbers however.

All I know for facts are:

HD-DVD is half the cost of BD hardware. HD-DVD will have price points under $350 by Christmas. BD will have more players out at Christmas, some costing over $1,000. The others right at $1,000. Christmas time is when Toshiba may decide to sell the unit at a loss. That to me means street prices around $350.

HD-DVD is 95% VC-1 video codec. BD is 95% MPEG-2. With the limited storage capacity due to the fact that Dual Layer BD doesn't work... BD has a FAR LOWER PICTURE QUALITY.

HD-DVD software on average is lower than BD (thanks to BD's 5% MPEG4 or VC-1 titles costing $40 MSRP).

Both have crappy remote controls and long load times.

Sony reps tell me that they expect their 2nd wave of BD players to be priced between $700 and $800 if they can get manufacturing prices down.

Toshiba reps tell me that they expect their 2nd wave of BD players to be priced under $300. That is if their demand estimations are met and they start producing more units. They don't have manufacturing issues like Sony does.

If Sanyo's 1st wave player is $349, then their second wave will likely be under $249.

I'm sorry but to me that is writing on the wall.

Will we get lossless codecs anytime soon?

I don't know. Right now it's like component outputs on original DVD players. Many didn't have them.

I expect 2nd wave product to have a high end player that offers the ability to decode the new codecs. The high end players will likely cost close to what the current 1st gen players cost.

To me, and this is my opinion and has nothing to do with media influences:

Lower price, same or better quality (at some point BD will either master 2sided discs where MPEG2 wont be a problem or they will start using VC-1), and Brand Name Recognition will make HD-DVD the winner.

The biggest obstacle for Blu-Ray is their stupid name. Ask the common consumer if they know about Blu-Ray and they will have no idea. Ask them about HD-DVD and they will say "that is high definition dvd right?"

From a marketing standpoint, lower price, high quality, and brand name recognition means you have a winner.

 

[Tiberium]

With the limited storage capacity due to the fact that Dual Layer BD doesn't work... BD has a FAR LOWER PICTURE QUALITY.

What? You might want to ditch the whole fanboy bull crap and stick to facts and not your opinion.

 

[Tiberium]

HD dvd disks are 15 GB for a single-layer disc, or 30 GB for a double-layer disc. Blu-ray Disc provides 67% more capacity per layer at 25 GB for a single-layer and 50GB for a double-layer disc.

 

[tsd2005]

TSD,

I don’t know ware your getting your information but its wrong, again.

There is no HDMI add on for the $499.95 PS3, you can add WiFi to it, a bigger HD, everything the $599.95 PS3 comes with BUT! HDMI. If HDMI is important to you, you will have to pay the $599.95 price tag to get it. And YES! The $499.95 WILL! Play Blu-Ray movies out of the box, MS fanboys have been throwing this rumor around but Sony has been very quick to shoot it down.

MS’s biggest mistake with the Xbox was you had to by the $30.00 remote to play back DVD movies, Sony is not making this same mistake.

Also please post your link to this XBox 360 price drop, because the winter price drop was only a rumor that MS officially shot down, there is NO planned price drop for the X360. The rumor right now that MS has yet to confirm or deny is the platinum X360 is not getting a price drop because the HD-DVD external add on will be packed in for the same price of $399.95.

Also there is a spy photo floating around of a X360 motherboard with an HDMI port on the back. People are speculating this could be a new version of the Xbox 360 with HDMI and an internal HD DVD drive, but so far nothing has been confirmed or denied, other then HD DVD disks will never be used for games only movies. Thus giving PS3 an advantage that it will have room for those 1080 textures, Xbox 360 developers have been complaining from day one about a typical DVD not having enough room for 720 textures let alone 1080 textures. PS3 will have an advantage that it’s Blu-Ray disk have the room for Hi-Def full motion video and full 1080P textures.

Personally I don’t give a shit about this HD DVD vs Blu-Ray war, I only care if one format wins. I have an HD-A1 and love it very much; if Blu-Ray shapes up (and it will) I will more then likely pick up one of those players too.

My MS info comes from MS directly. They are doing market research to see if a $50 price drop will be needed to hit the sales numbers they need to stay ahead of PS3. Their market research showed that a $100 drop was not needed after PS3 announced their unit would be $100 more and $200 more depending.

If they come out with a 360 with HD-DVD for $399... wow. I have friends at BioWare who have told me that the HD-DVD drives would allow them to make much better games, BUT they have to release 2 versions. The fact that so many 360s out wouldn't be able to play the game has caused the reason for the current stance of :design for DVD. They are pushing MS to allow a "HD-DVD version and DVD version." So far MS is still considering it. I think they will likely go for it.

Sony reps have told me they will have an adaptor for the PS3 offering HDMI. They gave me the $120 price point. They've been telling me that the $499 version will not play BD. Now the biggest problem right now with Sony is that the PS3 is being transitioned to be an electronics and a computer product. Currently I don't carry PS2. The electronics side of Sony has no clue about the Computer side. They want to sell the PS3 thru both outlets. It is very possible that the electronics reps have no idea what they are talking about. In fact this wouldn't shock me at all. They barely have a grasp of the electronics side. They were trying to convince me that their current SXRD lineup accepts 1080p signals!

Say they are wrong...

MicroSoft will still have an HD-DVD version out for $50 less than the PS3 without HDMI, etc. or $100 less (if your rumor is right).

Personally I don't care about game machines. I cared enough when I thought that it might decide the format war. However now I care about the software.

My research has shown me that BD isn't getting better. In fact looking at price points:

Current MPEG2 titles are $29.95 MSRP. Current VC-1 or MPEG4 titles are $39.95 MSRP.

This leads me to believe that its a marketing PLAN. BD will have high quality (like superbit) and low quality BDs, the majority of which will be low quality.

Meanwhile HD-DVD is pretty much VC-1.

Now when Dual Layer BD finally works and is financially appliable, then MPEG2 won't matter. However I bet those discs (because they're dual layered) will have a higher price tag.

Knowing my industry the way I do, I know that lower prices and high quality will generally win out. HD-DVD is currently much lower in price and higher quality on average. There is nothing to show that will change soon (we know the titles and which are MPEG2 thru the 1st Quarter of 2007).