Rent or Buy?

MartinLogan Audio Owners Forum

Help Support MartinLogan Audio Owners Forum:

This site may earn a commission from merchant affiliate links, including eBay, Amazon, and others.

Joey_V

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 17, 2005
Messages
4,380
Reaction score
1
Location
Dallas, TX
Hey fellas...

Now that I'm a resident, I'm looking to get out of my university apartment and wondering what I should do. I will be living in Chicago right around the Loop area. I won't bother you with exact addresses or even the general vicinity because most won't know what I'm babbling about.

Anyway, with the current market - is it wise to buy now and stay there for 4 years before flipping it (with the possibility of having to flip it even before then IF I get married) or is it better to rent?

What you fellas think?

Joey
 
Hey Joey,

If you know somebody high up (inside) the banking industry that can advise you on getting a really good low interest loan I'd say look to buy. Housing prices are dropping to a more realistic price range and foreclosures unfortunately are everywhere. If you buy, you should consider holding on to it for several years and remember... Location, Location, Location.

Satch
 
Joey,
Your almost always better off owning than renting.

Now is an especially good time to buy. Housing values and prices have dropped the last few years which almost never happens. And interest rates are low. And as Satch mentioned there are some really good deals in the foreclosure market.

Chicago area home values on average have only dropped around 6%, many parts of the country have been far worse, Detroit becuse of the job loss situation and California where the homes were just over valued and over priced.

I've never owned a piece of property, no matter how short I've ownd it that hasn't appreciated. and I've never not found someone willing to pay what I was asking for a piece of property.

Historically homes appreciate at 5 to 7 percent annually

You get to write off all home loan interest as well as real estate taxes every year on your income taxes. Rent is money just thrown out the window and no write offs.

You also control a very large investment with very little of your own money.

Example buy a place for $250,000, put down 20%, ($50,000)
Stay for 4 years, home appreciates an average of 5% a year after 4 years your home is worth just over $303,000. You now have over $103,000 in equity
and have doubled your initial $50,000 investment in just 4 years.

I'm always for ownership over rent and always give people that advice.
You almost always win.
 
Another feature, at least in the current tax structure, is that if it is your principle residence for two+ years in the previous five, when you sell, you get to keep the capital gains. In the past, you typically had to roll the return over into another house within a short period or you had to pay capital gains tax on it.

http://www.bankrate.com/brm/news/real-estate/20041018a1.asp

A postive for renting: when you just move into an area, you don't necessarily know where you want to live there (good/bad neighborhoods, appreciating/depreciating, etc.). Renting for a year gives you a chance to develop that sense of place.

At present, mortgage rates are very low, and prices are somewhat depressed. My opinion is that things won't start recovering until late this year or early next year, so you have some time before you have to really decide.
 
Condo prices in the city are dropping. So this is one of the best times to buy.
 
Buy

Another vote for buy. You already know the neighborhoods.

Just be sure and shop the loan and get a good deal.

--burke
 
Joey,
Your almost always better off owning than renting.

Now is an especially good time to buy. Housing values and prices have dropped the last few years which almost never happens. And interest rates are low. And as Satch mentioned there are some really good deals in the foreclosure market.

Chicago area home values on average have only dropped around 6%, many parts of the country have been far worse, Detroit becuse of the job loss situation and California where the homes were just over valued and over priced.

I've never owned a piece of property, no matter how short I've ownd it that hasn't appreciated. and I've never not found someone willing to pay what I was asking for a piece of property.

Historically homes appreciate at 5 to 7 percent annually

You get to write off all home loan interest as well as real estate taxes every year on your income taxes. Rent is money just thrown out the window and no write offs.

You also control a very large investment with very little of your own money.

Example buy a place for $250,000, put down 20%, ($50,000)
Stay for 4 years, home appreciates an average of 5% a year after 4 years your home is worth just over $303,000. You now have over $103,000 in equity
and have doubled your initial $50,000 investment in just 4 years.

I'm always for ownership over rent and always give people that advice.
You almost always win.

Buying now assumes the housing market is near the bottom of its cycle but I don't necessarily see indications of that yet. Second is the fact that condos tend to be harder to sell in any type of market.

My brother-in-law is a banker with a large national bank and according to him, home loans are now HARD to get. Of course we live in the L.A. area which has been hammered by the foreclosure mess and lenders here, after giving money away, are gun shy to say the least.

I'd wait to see where market prices go, I doubt we are at the bottom of this economic cycle and prices may be lower in 6 to 12 months.
 
all depends...

In theory, owning is normally always better than renting, but there are exceptions:

Don't buy unless you are really ready to buy. There are lots of costs related to buying a house/condo that most ignore - closing costs, inspection fees, real estate attorney fees, etc.

If your time horizon is short - renting could be a better option. That is to say if you see another job opporunity in another city, or state, you'd likely have to sell the house before you take the new position. It is hard to say that you realize a gain from the sale of a home if you've only been living there for a years. To me, I don't always necessarily look at a home as an investment...though after 10+ years, in many areas, the price in 2018, say, will likely be higher than it is today.

Due to the sub prime fiasco banks are (and all of them should have been doing this from the et go) require everyone to put 20% down. I am not privvy to the real estate prices in Chicago, but 20% on a $300,000 house is $60,000. That's a lot. So unless you have that much cash saved up, plus extra money to fix the place up (everyone wants new paint, appliances, yard work etc), money could be tight unless you've been working for a little while and you have some money squirrled away.

As others have pointed out, there are tax incentives to home ownership and I am sure a lot of the people who got interest only, adustable mortgages were thinking the same thing. But now we are seeing the gory aftermath when those teaser rates are adjusted and the home payment is substantially higher. The moral - avoid the ARM and stick to the traditional fixed 15 or 30 year mortgage.

Hey, if you can find a good deal and the payments are affordable, I would consider it. Just be sure to do some reading on the subject. Do your homework and look at the neighborhood, the crime rates, commute times, etc and see if it is worth it.

Erik
 
The question, "Is now a good time to invest in real estate as compared with other relatively long-term investments?" is a good one, and one that I'm personally in no position to answer. ;) However, assuming you're not sitting on a lot of disposable income, there's a good chance you're considering buying a place that's a bit more modest than you could afford to rent... but that sacrifice will lead to equity in the home over time. Right? To really be fair, don't forget that you could make a similar sacrifice and rent a property more like the one you're thinking of buying, and invest the monthly savings in any number of things from stocks, bonds, mutuals, metals, your own business, etc.

I find people often forget that buying a home is an active decision to invest money in real estate that they absolutely could invest in something else... and that could be a wise or foolish decision.

- Jason
 
Excellent points Jason. In a short term situation,

which 4 years is, a home in this market is clearly

a gamble. I would save my first home purchase for

a longer time frame situation, as you know tax laws

can change anytime.
 
Hey Joey... I tend to disagree with most of the statements made (except risabet's)...or at least would conditionalize them.

1. With closing costs, agent fees, and other one time expenses, you'd need to factor that into the equation...and since they're one time, they generally skew the result of a short-term investment more heavily. If you were going to stay in a place for a number of years...it makes more sense, as these costs are essentially amortized over the length of ownership. If you end up under 4 years in the house, you likely won't recover these fees, unless you have extraordinary growth in the house's value. (6% fees when you sell represent 1 full year's appreciation on the house...at long term rates, which I think are unreasonable for the next few years) If you are in the house for less than 4 years...it's completely possible that just your Real Estate fees will negate any growth in your house's value.

2. Current market - Look at what it costs to rent vs own in a given market. The real estate values in many markets went up massive amounts since 2000 (much higher than the average 5-7%) which means while people who bought early in that cycle made a lot of money, the value of real estate in many markets is inflated over what a long-term 5-7% growth rate would suggest is the value. That poses a couple of issues.
- First, if you buy a place, and the market hasn't completely settled...and you lose value off the bat. Maybe (probably) you get back to where you started in 4 years...maybe you go a little higher, maybe a lot higher (not likely, given the mortgage backlash).
-Second, you have renters who have owned properties for longer...(pre-2000) who are able to completely pay their mortgages on properties by charging much lower rent than what you'd pay for a mortgage (mortgage+HO Insurance+taxes-equity growth-property appreciation). So, even if you manage to make a little bit of money in 4 years when you sell the place...the growth rate on your investment will likely be very low. (your alternative would be to take the down payment + additional monthly costs and put them into a fund of some kind)

3. Additionally...since you'd be there likely a max of 4 years (and potentially shorter)...think of the hassle. Especially in this market, it's hard as hell to sell a property...which means you have to basically either pay on 2 properties...or make your plans revolve around the successful sale of your house. With a lease...you just buy out (generally for fairly cheap - 1-2 mo rent) or wait for it to end. No hassle. I tend to move around quite a bit at this point...haven't been a place more than 2 years since college...so buying a house for me hasn't made sense yet...mostly for this and the first reason.

I don't know your market...and my comments (especially #2) are market dependent...so do the math for yourself. Just make sure you include any sort of additional fees (HOA, Insurance) in the cost of ownership of a house.

I still think we have 1-2 years before the market gets back to a normal cycle. People who bought too high over the last few years are loathe to sell below what they paid for...which keeps the prices artificially high...and I think that's just beginning to correct itself.

That's my take. If you want to settle down eventually, and think you'll be a place a minimum of 5 years...I think it starts to make more sense...but even then this market gives me pause.
 
Joey,

Let me expand on my earlier answer. Think about it in practical terms. You are going to spend how much on rent? $1,000 a month maybe? Multiply that by 48 months and that is almost $50,000 that you could be putting toward home equity rather than just giving to someone else. Add to that scenario the fact that home prices are depressed right now and mortgage rates are very low. You can borrow the money cheap (assuming you can get your parents to co-sign for you -- probably very cheap) and housing prices in Chicago are probably the lowest they have been in a long time. Remember the old adage -- buy low, sell high. It applies to real estate just like it does to stocks. If you are only going to hold for four years or so, then better to buy when the market is depressed than when it is booming.

Will home prices drop even lower in the next 6 months to a year? Maybe. Maybe not. Trying to pick the bottom of any market is a very difficult thing to do. Better to be happy with the fact that prices are depressed and try to find a good deal now than waiting to see what happens. With the lowered rates by the fed, prices could pick back up in the next 6 months. I urge you to take advantage of the fact that prices are depressed and you can use someone else's money cheap to purchase a home that will be a nice place to live during residency, an investment and a savings account all at the same time.

Even if prices don't appreciate at all over the next four years (an unlikely scenario) and you sell the house for the price you paid, you will still get the equity that you have put into it (that $48,000) in a lump sum when you sell it. I can think of no better way to save money. All it would cost you in that case would be the interest on the loan, which as I said is pretty inexpensive right now.

The other thing you get out of this is experience. Only by owning a home will you really get the experience of knowing what it is like to own your own property. This includes dealing with the crap like when a pipe bursts in the winter (as happened to me this year), or the unexpected financial hit when you discover you need to make some repairs you had not expected. Learning how to repair things yourself and lots of other things all come with owning a home. This experience will help you out tremendously when you go to purchase your next home perhaps after you are married. You will have learned a lot of important things to look for and consider when shopping for your next home which you may have no clue about right now.

I can't say it strongly enough. Four years of putting money into an equity investment beats the heck out of four years of giving money away to someone else. Logically, it just makes no sense to rent.
 
I agree that it's good experience, and that the rates are low now, and I don't know the state of prices in the chicago market, so can't speak to them...and that is a very important consideration. Another consideration to make is that interest paid on your mortgage can be written off your taxes. You also generally get to pay real estate tax on your home as well...which can often be 1-2% of the home's value each year (depends on market) - on a $400,000 house, that's an extra $4k a year. Not a small consideration

My diagreements with Rich's point are in my first post...but let me reiterate. While it is true that gaining equity is nice...are you paying more for the benefit of owning the house than you're gaining in equity? Most mortgages are front weighted with interest, so something like 90% of your first payments are interest payments. Not until the later stages of a mortgage do you actually start gaining large percentages of your payments in equity. It's easy enough to calculate your equity gains.

So consider that you can rent a place that is of similar convenience/quality to you for $2k a month, or buy for a mortgage payment of $2500 a month. Chances are, no more than $500 of your payment is actually equity (nor will it be in the 4 years you plan to own it) so your "wasted" payment either to rent or interest is very similar. Then, with your other fees, HOA, Insurance, Tax (minus tax deduction benefits) you are likely "wasting" a good bit more money, and that's not even considering the one time costs (closing costs/RE agent fees), or costs of upkeep and repair that are generally covered when you rent. Again, if you change the $2000 and $2500 numbers, based on the actualities of the market, the equation should change.

I'm not saying buying a house is a bad idea...I'm saying that buying a house for 1-4 years is generally a bad idea in a weak/questionable market...especially under current conditions...and the hassle of it shouldn't be underrated. I'm also saying that given the market, and whether it's a renters or buyers market should play into your decision. That is market dependent...and is easy to do if you have an idea of a place you'd want to rent, and a place you'd want to buy. You can sit down and do the math. Even if it DOES appreciate a little bit over the next 4 years...it is very unlikely it will appreciate much, because the housing market will compress over the next few years, as the demands for mortgages (20% down, etc) have suddenly taken a large percentage of previously "qualified" buyers out in the market. As the supply stays the same, and demand drops down significantly, the prices are going to have to drop further to compensate. I don't think it'd be unreasonable at all to say that home prices would stay stagnant for an extended period of time, both to reflect this shift in policy, and to adjust for the rapid price increase that occured as a result of the former policy.

I would say, if you thought you were going to stay in a house for 10+ years...then go for it,whatever the market conditions. At that point you start to have some strong equity payments from your mortgage, and market fluctiations will likely even out over that period of time. In a strong market, buying a house for 3-5 years can make sense. Ever buying for less than 3 years, unless you're just trying to flip in an explosive growth market, just doesn't seem to make mathematical sense to me.

As to rich's last comment. Logically, it makes as much sense to give $1000 a month to a landlord as it does to give that to a mortgage company in interest payment, the government in real estate taxes, the HOA in fees, and the insurance company in HO Insurance... The extra $500 in equity makes no sense unless you're getting a better return on that investment than you would investing that money elsewhere.

Plain and simple...there is no answer to this question without having specific data to calculate - specific properties to compare, your specific preferences (as they relate to the hassle of it, etc.), the time period you'll be in the property, and assumptions of the market growth rate over that time period... If you find an awesome deal on a property to buy, maybe it makes sense... It's worth it to evaluate both options further, and do the math and evaluate your preferences...and make your choice off of those. I'd be happy to help if you go that route...
 
Last edited:
I agree that it's good experience, and that the rates are low now, and I don't know the state of prices in the chicago market, so can't speak to them...and that is a very important consideration. Another consideration to make is that interest paid on your mortgage can be written off your taxes. You also generally get to pay real estate tax on your home as well...which can often be 1-2% of the home's value each year (depends on market) - on a $400,000 house, that's an extra $4k a year. Not a small consideration

My diagreements with Rich's point are in my first post...but let me reiterate. While it is true that gaining equity is nice...are you paying more for the benefit of owning the house than you're gaining in equity? Most mortgages are front weighted with interest, so something like 90% of your first payments are interest payments. Not until the later stages of a mortgage do you actually start gaining large percentages of your payments in equity. It's easy enough to calculate your equity gains.

True - it can take years, perhaps around a decade until your mortage payment is actually hitting the principal. For most people, the first 5-10 years of payments is going toward the interest.

So consider that you can rent a place that is of similar convenience/quality to you for $2k a month, or buy for a mortgage payment of $2500 a month. Chances are, no more than $500 of your payment is actually equity (nor will it be in the 4 years you plan to own it) so your "wasted" payment either to rent or interest is very similar. Then, with your other fees, HOA, Insurance, Tax (minus tax deduction benefits) you are likely "wasting" a good bit more money, and that's not even considering the one time costs (closing costs/RE agent fees), or costs of upkeep and repair that are generally covered when you rent. Again, if you change the $2000 and $2500 numbers, based on the actualities of the market, the equation should change.

An interesting angle, and I agree with this statement.

I'm not saying buying a house is a bad idea...I'm saying that buying a house for 1-4 years is generally a bad idea in a weak/questionable market...especially under current conditions...and the hassle of it shouldn't be underrated. I'm also saying that given the market, and whether it's a renters or buyers market should play into your decision. That is market dependent...and is easy to do if you have an idea of a place you'd want to rent, and a place you'd want to buy. You can sit down and do the math. Even if it DOES appreciate a little bit over the next 4 years...it is very unlikely it will appreciate much, because the housing market will compress over the next few years, as the demands for mortgages (20% down, etc) have suddenly taken a large percentage of previously "qualified" buyers out in the market. As the supply stays the same, and demand drops down significantly, the prices are going to have to drop further to compensate. I don't think it'd be unreasonable at all to say that home prices would stay stagnant for an extended period of time, both to reflect this shift in policy, and to adjust for the rapid price increase that occured as a result of the former policy.

I would say, if you thought you were going to stay in a house for 10+ years...then go for it,whatever the market conditions. At that point you start to have some strong equity payments from your mortgage, and market fluctiations will likely even out over that period of time. In a strong market, buying a house for 3-5 years can make sense. Ever buying for less than 3 years, unless you're just trying to flip in an explosive growth market, just doesn't seem to make mathematical sense to me.

Exactly - much like with investing in stocks, if the time horizon is very short, say less than 5 years, it is hard to say what the market will look like. For all we know, it could be flat for another few years. However, if you look at a house a LONG-TERM investment, then it really doesn't matter. Chances are the house will appreciate over long stretches of time.

As to rich's last comment. Logically, it makes as much sense to give $1000 a month to a landlord as it does to give that to a mortgage company in interest payment, the government in real estate taxes, the HOA in fees, and the insurance company in HO Insurance... The extra $500 in equity makes no sense unless you're getting a better return on that investment than you would investing that money elsewhere.

Plain and simple...there is no answer to this question without having specific data to calculate - specific properties to compare, your specific preferences (as they relate to the hassle of it, etc.), the time period you'll be in the property, and assumptions of the market growth rate over that time period... If you find an awesome deal on a property to buy, maybe it makes sense... It's worth it to evaluate both options further, and do the math and evaluate your preferences...and make your choice off of those. I'd be happy to help if you go that route...

This is neat thread, because I would like to buy a place too! But the more I look, the more I realize I need to save up before I committ so this sort of purchase.

Erik
 
When you consider it seriously, it's a complex decision. Whenever I think about it, I stop asking if I wouldn't be smarter to purchase and build equity, and instead ask, "Is now a good time to sacrifice my living conditions somewhat to save money each month which I can invest in something that might appreciate? And if so, should that investment be real estate, or something else?" That's the real consideration.

If I were to purchase a place comparable to my apartment in NYC, I'd be paying about 40% more per month just to make the mortgage. If it's a Condo there's maintenance. If it's a co-op, there's likely an underlying mortgage on the property along with the maintenance. In this comparison, the question is, "Is now a good time to increase my monthly expenses by investing in real-estate... as compared with something else?" Don't ever forget that your only choice for 'building equity' isn't real estate.

Interesting discussion, guys!

- Jason
 
Joey,
As a Financial Advisor working in the Banking world I would encourage you to look towards home ownership Vs. renting given a few conditions:

1. Look in a neighborhood you already know. Make sure you check out the neighboring school district/medical facilities/proximity to fire dept...etc. These things WILL matter when you sell your property.

2. Buy under valued property (very easily accomplished in our current market) and negotiate closing costs into the purchase agreement with an escape clause if appraisal does not come back with sufficient value.

3. Purchase soon, but purchase wisely. Sellers are doing their best during the months where school is out of session. They are less likely to negotiate as much when there are more potential buyers. Families tend not to move once School has returned to session. now you make the rules.

I could go on for a long time here, but I'm going to let you all know some lending credit guidelines instead. We are in an environment where you will see-this year, industry-wide credit criteria and LTV/CLTV restrictions. They will get worse as this year progresses. We are not at the bottom of the market as of yet and that would tempt many to wait and see how low we will go before jumping on a purchase. As a real estate investor and someone rooted in the finance industry, I know that it will become more difficult to obtain financing. Appraisals will be valued more conservatively, income documentation will be scrutinized further, employment history will become more important, and banks will be lending less. The fed's repeated cutting of federal funds rate has become a quick temporary influx of liquidity for banks, but in return, only short term interest rates have fallen (Equity Lines..Cds, money markets, annuities..etc). Long term rates are still very much in flux.
My advice to you Joey would be the above caveats with your eye on the rates. They are much more volatile than before, with several rate changes even happening within the same day. But in almost every instance, Owning is more beneficial than renting. Don't shoot for your dream house now unless you plan on living in it for quite some time.
shoot for the undervalued property that could use some curb apeal in order to jump its FMV within a faster time frame. And don't forget, you don't want the white elephant of your neighborhood. That is to say, the largest home, the only one with a pool...etc. It will cause the appraiser to go outside of the market area to find comps and a lender can see that as a squirreled appraisal. It's a great time to buy, just be smart about what you are purchasing.
Adam
 
Adamo, I agree with your points...but think they apply to more medium to long-term home ownership, as they ignore some of the major pain points I addressed that deal with short term ownership (one time fees, amount of money put towards interest, additional overall cost, etc.) Whatever the thoughts on the market, I think it's pretty universally accepted that it's not going to be a STRONG market anytime soon (next 2-3 years, the period he'd likely own for) ... which again affects the equation he should be considering.

One point I made prior, but feel is important, is that one of the major reasons for growth in the market over the last few years was the huge influx of newly "qualified" buyers, given the lowered requirements to obtain a home loan. With the elmination of the conditions that created this growth, the market will need to contract (prices falling) since demand has dropped through the floor. With the higher demand before, people were willing to pay a greater percentage of their income for a place to live...but with the equation returned to its old state...I believe that people are going to need to allow their incomes to catch up to the real estate prices before there will be significant price growth again. The slowdown in the market isn't a normal cyclical one, it's a structural one (related to lending practices), and it'll need to correct itself...not just work through a normal cycle.

If he was asking about buying a house for the next 10+ years, I'd agree more with your assessment, but disagree with it under his described situation. I too work for a bank, but as a financial analyst, rather than advisor.
 
IWalker, you make some very good points and I think Joey should definitely consider your perspective. As someone who has rented for years and who has also bought and sold several homes, I still disagree with your conclusion. With lending rates hovering below 6% for a 15 year fixed note, and prices as depressed as they are, this is a perfect opportunity to buy. Even if you plan to flip in 4 or 5 years. Now if he were looking at 3 years or less, I would agree that renting makes the most sense. But for four years or more, I would make the investment in a purchase rather than rent. Worst case scenario is he has to move early and prices are down, but then he could rent it out for the mortgage payment and still be building equity instead of pi$$ing money away on rent.

By the way, if more and more people are being shut out of the home buying market, then shouldn't that result in an increase in renters and an accompanying jump in rental prices? This could make renting a more expensive alternative than it has been. Another factor to consider. Great discussion everyone.
 
Back
Top