30 years into the Future with HOME audio?

[Peter_Klim]

I was just reading about the movie TRON and it got me thinking, what the future with home audio equipment will be like. Not necessarily of he technology but will there even be HOME audio?

With the stereo electronics industry dominating in portable electronics, manufactures of home stereo have been making stereo speakers smaller and smaller. Hardlly anyone ever sits donw to listen to music to just listen to music. Even in car audio seems to be dying out because I see drivers with those white earbud headphones. I couldn't believe 5 years ago when my friend told me she listens to music in her bedroom through her PC speakers. Even in the 90's my friends at least had a boom box in their bedroom. I've been living on the beach these past 4 years and I don't even think I've ever seen anyone there with a boombox. Ok, I'm getting a bit off topic, but my point is it seems like hardly anyone has anything audio related unless its main purpose is to be heard using headphones.

Sound quality has gone downhill the last 20 years or so and it's getting worse with the Loudness war. So obviously not that many people care about sound quality, espeically not the kind you can get from good full-bandwidth floor standing speakers.

If not for home theater, I think home audio would be fading away much quicker. But even there, it's becoming small, not even bookshelf, but small satellite speakers that only go down to 200 H with one single 3" driver standing on 4 foot poles. I have a friend who use to be into HT, with nice speakers, but now he just has a TV, one that is much larger, but no external speakers. He tells me: "No, it sounds good. It gets really 'loud'"

I'm 41, and I think I'm a little bit younger than the average aged audiophile (or anyone into quality stereos). In 30 years I'll be deaf or dead. In 30 years there will hardly be the market for anyone wanting to buy decent speakers. So maybe Martin Logan is doing the right thing by getting into tiny speakers? Rumor is they're working on electrostatic bud earphones

So what are your thoughts of home audio in the feature? Will there be any? Will amps, speakers, source all be the size of a pack of cigarettes? Will it exists but it will all suck? I don't think there will be ANY talk about which cables are better or if there are any difference in detectable sonics- everything will be wireless.

 

[Hocky]

In my experience around here, home theater is really bringing it back. I have a lot of friends getting rid of HTIB stuff and moving to real floor standing speakers and higher quality subwoofers in the name of home theater. It's main intent isn't music, but a good speaker is a good speaker. I have a feeling that you're right, though - the idea of sitting down to listen to music as entertainment is mostly gone. Everything is too connected now and everyone is always doing something. I bet even among audiophiles, much of the time spent listening is spent while browsing the internet or doing some other secondary task. I am a 20 something kid, so that either means that I have a good grasp because I am in the demographic for this 30 years down the line or I have no idea because I am too young and dumb. haha

 

[amey01]

Sorry to p1ss on your bonfire, but bally hoo.

Everyone always goes on about this, but fact is, we are a niche. And a downright thriving one at that. We always have been a niche.

Now people listen to iPods and computer speakers. 30 years ago it was Walkmans and plastic boomboxes. 50 years ago, it was crappy portable record players with plastic tonearms.

No, as much as you might like to think - every house in 1958 didn't have a pair of Quad ESL57s.

And no - back in 1983, every house didn't have a pair of Martin Logan Monoliths.

The industry has never died, and it is not going to.

Nothing new to see here. Moving right along.

 

[tsv_1]

Peter - I think this question is perhaps more salient than ever before, and I'm glad you brought it up.

IMHO, I think the question is whether or not our niche is growing, remaining relatively constant, or (most likely) shrinking due to the tremendous forces of increasing connectivity and streaming a/v entertainment via handhelds, computers, and televisions. Never before have there been so many readily accessible compressed data protocols that sound "good enough" to the masses... and never before have there been so many end-solutions to listen/view/experience that data.

The other interesting thing to note is that technological progression is increasing at an increasing rate... so it's very difficult to say where we'll all be in 30 years (those of us still circulating blood that is). Hell, would anyone have seen the imminent demise of the CD/DVD format in such a short period of time? High bandwidth access (e.g. 4G/LTE, FTTH, etc) to streaming data and the advent of cloud services are here and only growing stronger, and in some cases, dramatically so. All this access is vying for the attention of our younger generations unlike anything we've experienced before.

If I were a betting man, and I'm not... but if I were, I'd say the home entertainment landscape is going to evolve dramatically in the next 30 years (barring societal breakdown, giant asteroids, alien invasions, etc). I think that evolution will potentially be a good thing for home theater, but I'm not sure how it will impact the high end 2-channel realm. I think the 2-channel world will continue to exist, but the "club" will be sideswiped not only by ubiquitous high-tech data access, but also general economics. That is, unless there's some major shift in the economy, there will simply be fewer individuals out there with the discretionary budgets that the baby boomers have enjoyed.

Having said all that, there are the counter-arguments that support ever-more-affordable storage space (heck 2TB for under $100? that's effing amazing!)... and a proliferation of HD audio download sites, this coupled with a few good souls out there that have doubled down their efforts to provide very high quality releases in vinyl... these things allow us to continue to indulge our quests for audio-nirvana... but in the end, I think the "good enough" crowd will continue to grow, while the elitist audiophiles (let's admit it) will become an ever-more-select group of individuals.

For some fairly engaging future-shock visionary projections, read anything by Ray Kurzweil... bio-electronic augmentation isn't that far away. We will all be assimilated. Resistance is futile

As an aside, I'll be 49 next month - not that there's anything wrong with that

 

[Wardsweb]

No one really knows where technology will be in 30 years. I believe we will progress beyond "stereo". Maybe a cross between home theater 5.1 and 2-channel stereo. A system to derive a true 3D depth of field for music listening. Be that multiple front speakers or done electronically, we already know it can be done.

There will be people who listen to whatever, those that listen to their gear and a few that listen to music. The mass majority of manufacturers will cater to the largest crowd to increase profits. A few will target the music listeners with higher margins.

Who knows if one day we implant transducers behind our ears and our heads become acoustic chambers putting you in the music.

 

[amey01]

"good enough" crowd will continue to grow

The "good enough" crowd is growing? If anything, the audiophile crowd is growing. GFC and all, we've got a better selection of equipment and more of a thriving industry than we have ever had at any time in the past.

The "good enough" crowd has always been the majority. If anything though - the technology has made the sound quality available to the "good enough" crowd far superior today than it has ever been in the past.

I don't know many people that would not prefer a 128k or 256k file on an iPod over a scratched 45 played back with what amounts to a sewing needle and plastic tonearm and plastic platter through single-way, chipboard-cased, paper coned speakers.

Do you really think that today's "compressed" iPod realistically provides any less sound quality than a CD discman or Walkman with cheap op-amp output stage of the past with the same, cheap $0.30 headphones that came in the box? There is no absolute compromise in sound quality. That's why they're so popular.

But in the end - it's all about music. And today - even with all the competition from games, TV, movies, internet, Playstations, etc - more people are listening to music - and more of it - than in times gone by. This in itself will by nature sprout a section of people that demand more.

 

[MickeyVee]

We'll replace drywall and other wall materials with a hybrid Martin Logan panel that also is capable of extreme definition video. We will be immersed with on demand, extreme definition audio/video anywhere we go..

Really, as long as there is live music, there will be an market for the music lovers, whatever that may look like.

 

[tsv_1]

The "good enough" crowd is growing? If anything, the audiophile crowd is growing.

I figured I'd get an interesting response from you

I wasn't argueing that today's digitally compressed music is any better or worse than any comparitive media from the past. That's independent of Peter's initial post and my response. My point is based on comparing audiophiles to the common/casual music listener.

In absolute terms, I would agree that the audiophile crowd seems healthy and may even be expanding. No arguement there. But in relative terms, the good-enough crowd is growing at a faster rate (IMO). So, if we look at the pie as being all music listeners, then the audiophile slice continues to shrink RELATIVE TO the good-enough crowd.

Of course this is just my belief based on my understanding of market trends, base economic indicators, and the ever-increasing bandwidth availability for anyone with a cell-phone or high-speed connection.

Time to go listen to some 24/192.

Cheers

 

[Rich]

In absolute terms, I would agree that the audiophile crowd seems healthy and may even be expanding. No arguement there. But in relative terms, the good-enough crowd is growing at a faster rate (IMO). So, if we look at the pie as being all music listeners, then the audiophile slice continues to shrink RELATIVE TO the good-enough crowd.

Not much purpose in trying to debate this unless someone can come up with some data to back up their position. No question that both segments are growing and have more equipment available to purchase (both used and new) than at any time in history. It is a good time to be either an audiophile or a casual listener.

 

[amey01]

In absolute terms, I would agree that the audiophile crowd seems healthy and may even be expanding. No arguement there. But in relative terms, the good-enough crowd is growing at a faster rate (IMO).

So both segments are growing. We agree!

I guess I mistook the tone of your previous post as if this was something to lament. It is not.

As I said - the fact that more people are "into" music (notwithstanding all the "noise" and distractions in today's "switched on" world) can only be a good thing.

 

[Peter_Klim]

Sorry to p1ss on your bonfire, but bally hoo.

Everyone always goes on about this, but fact is, we are a niche. And a downright thriving one at that. We always have been a niche.

Now people listen to iPods and computer speakers. 30 years ago it was Walkmans and plastic boomboxes. 50 years ago, it was crappy portable record players with plastic tonearms.

No, as much as you might like to think - every house in 1958 didn't have a pair of Quad ESL57s.

And no - back in 1983, every house didn't have a pair of Martin Logan Monoliths.

The industry has never died, and it is not going to.

Nothing new to see here. Moving right along.

Obviously you didn't get my point... while I do see a bit of unecessary attitude with your post.

Of course not everyone had Quads back then. BUT, just a couple of decades ago, almsot every college dorm had some sort of Home stereo system in it, some even with very large speakers, but now most dorms don't have ANY HOME stereo system at all.

Since there is, as you say, nothing new to see, i guess we won't be seeing you here again. Gee wiz (not the wiz from a p1ss)

 

[tsv_1]

So both segments are growing. We agree!

I guess I mistook the tone of your previous post as if this was something to lament. It is not.

As I said - the fact that more people are "into" music (notwithstanding all the "noise" and distractions in today's "switched on" world) can only be a good thing.

No argument... but I think this has veered pretty far off Peter's original question/intent (as thread exchanges often do I suppose).

 

[tsv_1]

Not much purpose in trying to debate this unless someone can come up with some data to back up their position. No question that both segments are growing and have more equipment available to purchase (both used and new) than at any time in history. It is a good time to be either an audiophile or a casual listener.

Rich... really? You took all of two sentences to contradict yourself. First you point out that there's not much purpose in debating because there's no back-up data, and then you declare that there's no question both segments are growing. OK... where's the data? That's a rhetorical question.

 

[amey01]

but will there even be HOME audio?

Hardlly anyone ever sits donw to listen to music to just listen to music.

listens to music in her bedroom through her PC speakers.

I think home audio would be fading away

What are your thoughts of home audio in the feature? Will there be any?

Will amps, speakers, source all be the size of a pack of cigarettes?

will all suck?

Personally, I thought I was very much ON topic. I gave my opinion for each of these questions and anecdotes. Feel free to agree, disagree, or voice an opinion otherwise.

Just as I think you, me and TSV_1 have already. I might learn something from you - you might learn something from me. That's what a forum is all about.

5 years ago when my friend told me she listens to music in her bedroom through her PC speakers. Even in the 90's my friends at least had a boom box in their bedroom.

And a boombox is a quality source of audio pleasure, is it? Today's equivalent is the iPod dock, and they're everywhere. Again, change? Yes. New? No.

Rumor is they're working on electrostatic bud earphones

Stax do it and they're great! Good luck to ML if they go down this path. Incidently, where did you hear this?

 

[Rich]

Rich... really? You took all of two sentences to contradict yourself. First you point out that there's not much purpose in debating because there's no back-up data, and then you declare that there's no question both segments are growing. OK... where's the data? That's a rhetorical question.

Actually, since you and Adam both seemed to agree that both segments were growing, and since I concur, I voiced my own agreement with that concept. In other words, I didn't perceive that there was any debate on that statement and I didn't have anything contradictory to offer. So I voiced my own agreement. My other statement referred specifically to the topic of which segment is growing faster. You think good-enough. Adam thinks the audiophile. Big whoop. As I said, without any data, it is pretty pointless to debate opinions on that question.

 

[timm]

wow - I never thought that music was growing as an entertainment source. I thought sales were down? Even so - the example above about the college dorm rooms is a good one... Yes, I too remember that everyone had a stereo in their room...It was our form of entertainment... So, if you look at this and paint it with a broad brush and call it all entertainment... Kids today - that become adults tomorrow have so much more to choose from than we did in the 70's as an example.

Movies: we had lousy vcrs - but they could not compete with the theaters... Now we can get theater quality at home...in many cases better than theater quality.

Games: We had Pong,astrosmash etc... Today the games are limitless with graphics that look real in some cases or are so 3D that it just hooks you in.

So, when you go into those dorm rooms today -- what do you see? What do they all have? PS3s or X-Box and you usually see a very nice flat screen in there too....

Home Theaters are not for music - they are for movies... who are we kidding?

I think the key to the industry that we care about - is really what feeds it - which is the music. If the music stays alive thru programs / colleges - hopefully that will spawn more individuals like us that would like to hear it really well - and those that like to make products that play it well

I do feel certain that physical media will go away - and we will just be downloading music / movies etc.... We are almost there now.... It might be possible that there will be improvement in the sound of portable devices like the ipod... which could mean BETTER downloads where 24/192 might be the defacto standard... Processors will get faster (so maybe players will read more bits at a faster rate....is 48/384 possible without upsampling...guessing so....) Bandwidth will increase - better lossless algorithms will be created...AND here is the kicker -- It will SELL more ipods.....'Get the new and improved sounding ipod'... Why buy the new version?? - because it is new and improved - sounds better - and you can now re-purchase all of your mp3s with the new standard 24/192.....so to figure out where the industry is going to go - figure out the marketing first and how people can leverage sound improvements to make $$$$....

 

[robertawillisjr]

Perhaps not 30 years from now, but we are going to be able to access our music, HT and the "sphere" through something like nano implants. Perfect audio (etc) forever indeed.

 

[JonFo]

My crystal ball only works for 20 years at a time, so here is the 20 year prognostication I wrote up a year or so ago:
http://www.jonathanfoulkes.com/Articles/Audio_next_20_years.htm

The biggest impact will likely come from vector encoded audio. then all the silly 2ch vs mch talk will die down and people will choose appropriate reproduction systems that suit location, taste, need.

Getting the recording industry onto that will be a big challenge though and will take most of those two decades to transition.

But it's started already with recent announcements about collaborations on 3D audio

 

[TomD]

My crystal ball only works for 20 years at a time, so here is the 20 year prognostication I wrote up a year or so ago:[/URL]

Very nice article, lots of insight.

It seems easier to anticipate what will not be rather than to predict what will come. The DVD/blue-ray i believe is already declining. The rental companies want us to adopt streaming as a means of acquiring movies. Likely, if there are the equivalent of Red-boxes around, they will be portals where you insert a flash drive and download the movie of your choice. I suspect that blue-ray will be one of the shortest living formats we have seen since the cylinder (before my time BTW )

What i find interesting is that when HT was first introduced, existing stereo equipment was used to fill that nich. Nowadays, speakers, amps, processors, players, you name it (well maybe not TTs ) are being designed to satisfy the HT community. I think that is the key to future designs in the audio markets. It could be that research into HT systems will be the driving force that will advance the audio (that is traditional stereo) market.

I also believe that there will always be a market for quality stereo systems. We will always go to concerts and want to listen to music for the sake of the music alone. The control of the positioning of the sound, which is important for movies and games, will find its way into audio systems to enhance the stereo experience, assuming its still called stereo 30 years from now.

Lets face it, video is king. Most people are likely more impressed with a large screen HD picture than with an awesome stereo. So sad.

 

[robertawillisjr]

Well I would be happy to do streaming, if the resolution were 1080p (that is the best we have now) or better. For now netflix and a cheap blu ray player is just fine for me.