I've been without a full-time job for about 14 months--I have a degree and 20 years experience in my field, a folder full of recommendations, and a very diverse and creative portfolio, and yet, here I am--almost a year and a half with no full-time employment.
You tell me if we're in a recession, Joey...
I am amazed that someone as sensitive and intelligent as you can even ask such a question with a serious expression on his face. I'm actually sort of sorry for you, because you must be terribly insulated from the majority of American's by the wealth of your family to even entertain such a question.
Here's a little clue as to how things REALLY are going in the USA these days, Joey--Ask someone in the construction business what the ONLY growth segment has been in construction for the last 20 years straight--without fail, without stalls, without even much of a slowdown. The answer to that question should shock you, because it illustrates how our government REALLY views the populace of this nation. It is truly atrocious...
My best friend from college works for a major international institutional investment company, and he tells me that the fact of the matter is that the entire Mortgage industry in the US is literally teetering on the edge of collapse, and when (not if, but when) it caves in on itself, it will pretty much take the entire credit industry with it--banks, credit card companies, and ALL their associated business--stock markets, commodities markets, futures trading, the insurance industry--will essentially cause a huge chain reaction of collapse, all the way out to the Federal Reserve (which, by the way, is NOT "Federal"--it is a privately-held corporation, and it has almost NO "Reserve"--they sold most of their gold off over the last 30 years, and besides, we went of the Gold Standard in 1933, and our currency is now only backed by the good faith of our creditors).
Joey, you may be shopping for Rolexes right now, but if the mortgage industry tanks like it probably should (because it's completely out of control, and being operated by a bunch of delusional amoral megalomaniacs who honestly believe they can do no wrong), then unless you and your family are AlSaud wealthy, or Warren Buffett wealthy, or Ingvar Kamprad wealthy, you will probably be in the soup lines with the rest of the middle-class schmoes, because when it falls, it's pretty much going to take EVERYONE down, unless you are Carlos Slim Helú wealthy, or Lakshmi Mittal wealthy. If your net worth is less than 8 figures, and you're not heavily invested in on-hand bullion, those bank accounts and stock portfolios--no matter how fat--will be essentially meaningless. We're talking wheelbarrows of cash for grocery shopping here kids.
Now, please don't take this as some sort of attack on your fortune, Joey. I applaud your hard work, and I'm sure that you and your family have become so well-off by following the "American Dream". But what I am saying is that unless your family (and this goes for MANY of the folks on this list) is in the top 2 or 3 percent of the wealthy in the USA, you will be just as screwed as those of us in the bottom 25-50%.
The only difference is that we folks at the lower end of the strata are 1) better prepared to weather the storm, because we know how to hunt, fish, camp, garden, and scrape by; 2) we are not insulted from the obvious and impending (and slowly materializing) collapse, by wealth and privilege--we are all watching our friends and relatives get their hours and benefits cut, or getting laid off completely, or have their retirement plans raped and liquidated, or having our homes foreclosed on by panicky, greedy banks, or seeing our children's schools literally falling apart, because there is no money to fix them, or watching generations-old businesses being sold because they can't compete with Chinese-product-peddling MegaStores, only to be replaced by companies who don't care about their employees, customers OR the community; and 3) We don't require much outside help to maintain a lifestyle that we can endure, because we currently don't have such luxuries anyway...
The good faith of our foreign creditors is floated primarily on the stability and stength of the American credit system, and if our own system falls, all those foreign debts will be called in--essentially our Government will have its loans foreclosed on, and I'm sure you know what that would mean.
Don't think such a collapse can happen? Neither did the people of a certain Bavarian industrial and financial super-power in Europe at the beginning of the 20th century. They were actually carrying wheelbarrows full of cash to do their grocery shopping because their economy was so ruined. Luckily for them, they had a strong government come into power in the mid 1930's that revitalized their economy with increased military spending, public work projects, lots of corporate croneyism, and a massive program of incarcerating people in the general population for "crimes against the State". But luckily for the rest of the world, they were defeated in a big war...
Hey, wait a minute, those strategies for economic stimulus sound sort of familiar...
So, you tell me if we're in an f-ed up economy, Joey. The average American employee gets less vacation, lower benefits, and has less job security, than a similarly-skilled and experienced employee had 50 years ago, and to ad insult to injury, probably has NO retirement or pension plan, putting his/her future in an even more bleak position. Our generation (those of us between the ages of 40 and 50) are the FIRST generation in the history of our nation to NOT be guaranteed a chance to be financially better-off than our parents.
You tell me, are we in a recession?
I, for one, already have a plan in place, for retreating with my sweetie and some VERY close, hand-picked friends, to my father's farm in WV--60 acres of nearly-impossible-to-access property with our own wells, our own generators, very-soon-to-be completely off grid Solar system, and enough ammo, water, and fuel stockpiled to hold out for about 2 years...
Yes, it is that bad. Or at least it's bad enough that people in the know are already preparing for it. Why do you think Gold is as high as it has ever been historically--because people are stockpiling it. Why are security systems the number one improvement being made on new homes? Why are foreclosures at an all-time high?
If you're not already heavily into gold, I'd suggest looking into it (and i don't mean shares in mines, or futures, I mean bullion, because among certain classes, gold ALWAYS has purchasing value). If you're not in a financial position to get into gold then I'd REALLY suggest investing heavily in "prefabricated lead"-- and I mean bullets and shotgun shells, because they will be more valuable than "money", apre le deluge...
My suggestion to you would be to forget the new Rolex and get some land out in the country, a fat stockpile of ammo and Gold and Silver Bullion, get proficient with a firearm, learn about solar power and bio-diesel, and pray to whatever deities you revere, that you never need to use those skills.
BTW, the answer to the "construction growth" question is "Prison Construction". Yup. In the USA, the ONLY segment of the construction industry that has experienced continuous grown for the last 2 decades is Prison Construction.
The USA is currently NUMBER ONE in terms of incarcerated people per capita--more than China, more than North Korea, more than even the USSR at the height of it's power. Does that bolster your faith in our government's concern and compassion for it's citizenry?
Now you tell me, bro--is our economy on the edge?
--Richard
